Friday, June 18, 2010

You don't say ...

Remember the classic NYT piece from April after a two month run of stocks being up nearly every single day, Interest Rates Have Nowhere to Go But Up.  Fast forward to now and we get, Treasury Bonds Defy Expectations from the FT.  Turns out long term Treasuries have returned about 20% on an annualized basis thus far this year, while American equities are flat.

I think the FT ought to amend the title  of that article to Treasury Bonds Defy Idiots' Expectations.

While I personally was not long longer-term Treasuries, I was long calls on Eurodollars that profited immensely as it became clear that the Fed was not jacking up rates any time soon.  As that trade became nearly fully valued (in my opinion), I have exited that position and moved on to a trade with a similar thesis and greater upside, The Oz Trade.

I continue to be long June 2011 and Sept 2011 Aussie 90 day bank bill futures contracts.  I plan on shorting the Aussie dollar soon as well.  I would prefer to do this by buying put options on the AUD and am monitoring the pricing for these.

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